Understanding adjustment bias and its impact on forecast accuracy – NXP

 Overview

Company Description

The world leader in secure connectivity solutions for embedded applications, NXP is driving innovation in the secure connected vehicle, end-to-end security and IOT smart connected solutions markets. 

As the world’s 5th largest chip-maker, the company has 29,000 employees in over 30 countries, with approximately $13B in annual revenue.

Project Description

Project description:

The modeling team generates statistical and ML driven forecasts that are evaluated and often adjusted by the demand managers before being delivered to the supply chain organization.

Understanding the demand managers’ adjustment patterns and their impact on forecast accuracy enables the team to recognize this behavior and mitigate it.

Goals of the project:

As part of this project, we would like to analyze the forecast model review and adjustment process to  identify traits that lead to model adjustment, and their resulting impact on forecast accuracy.

Deliverables:

This project consists of three phases:

• Develop an understanding of the forecast review process and the various organizations involved, benchmarking it against industry best practices and literature.

• Analyze the forecast override logs and resulting accuracy metrics to identify significant patterns in adjustment behavior and discernable accuracy outcomes.

• Propose a solution to effectively identify predictably wrong override behaviors and develop a prototype to demonstrate its application.

Essential student knowledge:

Python, Machine Learning methodologies

More information: escf@tue.nl